National home values fell 1.1 per cent in September, the sixth consecutive monthly decline, according to Cotality’s September Home Value Index.
The result takes the total fall from the March 2026 peak to 5.2 per cent.
ABC News and AAP reported the figures on 1 October, and Reuters filed its report on 30 September with a 1 October dateline.
Over the three months to the end of September, 97 per cent of capital city suburbs recorded a decline, according to Cotality figures quoted in the three reports.
The September Numbers
The national median dwelling value fell to $899,236, roughly where it stood 12 months earlier, AAP reported.
Sales over the past three months are down 19.1 per cent on a year earlier and 13.3 per cent below the five-year average, ABC News reported.
Capital city homes now take a median 39 days to sell, up from 23 days a year ago, the same report said.
The Cities
Every capital city except Darwin fell over the month.
Brisbane recorded the steepest monthly fall at 1.5 per cent, ahead of Sydney at 1.4 per cent, and Sydney is now about 9 per cent below its February peak.
Melbourne fell 0.7 per cent and is more than 7 per cent off its peak, while Adelaide and Perth each fell by more than 1 per cent.
Darwin, up 0.4 per cent, was the only capital city to rise.
How It Compares
Cotality research director Tim Lawless said the pace of the current decline slightly outruns the 2022/23 period, placing this correction deeper at the same stage than that slide. He said the slump is projected to be the largest in four decades.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said: “This is already shaping up as the biggest downturn in property prices that we’ve seen in the last 40 years.”
Reuters described the decline as the worst downturn in three decades.
The Forecasts and Risks
Forecasts for the size of the fall remain split. Economists generally expect a peak-to-trough fall of 9 to 13 per cent, AAP reported.
Lawless told ABC News: “I think a 10 per cent to 15 per cent drop is probably a fairly reasonable estimate at the moment.”
Oliver’s worst case, built on a prolonged Middle East war, oil at $150 a barrel and job losses, implies falls of up to 20 per cent.
He warned ABC News that “if you have a 20 per cent fall, then you’re knocking about 2 per cent off consumer spending”, adding that such a fall could tip the economy into recession.
Gold Coast developer Soheil Abedian warned that construction bankruptcies would rise sharply on a 10 to 15 per cent fall, telling ABC News: “You cannot do any development in Australia that is not bankable.”
The Backdrop
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.6 per cent on 29 September, a 15-year high, and signalled it is ready to tighten again, Reuters reported.
Housing credit growth is slowing, the same report said.
The May budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes are also cooling investor demand, a factor both AAP and ABC News cite.
Rents rose 3.6 per cent in the year to August, unchanged since May, and the national vacancy rate recovered to 2 per cent from a record low of 1.5 per cent, AAP reported.
More than 102,000 first home buyers have now used the uncapped five per cent deposit scheme, and the Prime Minister says it is “helping Australians, particularly young Australians, get their foot in the door”, according to AAP.
Related: Australian Rents Hit a Record $705 a Week as Vacancies Stay Tight
Sources: ABC News, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-01/australian-house-prices-fall-for-sixth-straight-month/107206782; AAP, https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/house-prices-in-freefall-for-sixth-straight-month; Reuters (via Investing.com), https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/australian-home-prices-fall-for-sixth-straight-month-in-september-sales-tumble-4925406
Photo: Chris Olszewski, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Illustrative: a Queenslander style house in Paddington, Queensland. This photograph is not of any property referred to in the article.
